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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates IK brage at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Umeå FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

IK brage and Umeå FC meet at Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

IK brage's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.

IK brage at Domnarvsvallen this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Umeå FC have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Umeå FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Umeå FC's away record: 0W 1D 6L from 7 road trips in Superettan this season (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward IK brage. A 0.70 PPG lead over Umeå FC (1.00 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — IK brage lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with IK brage winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

IK brage — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Umeå FC — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 53% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 60% versus Umeå FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 53% | Umeå FC 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 2.06 xG and Umeå FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.958 / defence 1.202 | Umeå FC attack 0.654 / defence 1.544. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.353. Umeå FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.544 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 IK brage games / 15 Umeå FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: IK brage 60% | Draw 21% | Umeå FC 18%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Umeå FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 70% | Umeå FC 43% BTTS from recent games.

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