IK brage 1-2 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IK brage face Sandviken.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandviken make the trip to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to face IK brage in Superettan (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
IK brage's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
IK brage's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sandviken have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sandviken away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for IK brage, 0 for Sandviken and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended IK brage 1–0 Sandviken — a IK brage win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sandviken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 33% versus Sandviken 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 25% | Sandviken 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.46 xG and Sandviken 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.939 / defence 0.902 | Sandviken attack 0.940 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.175. Sandviken's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IK brage's projected output up. Data: built from IK brage's last 54 games and Sandviken's last 24.
Result probabilities: IK brage 47% | Draw 29% | Sandviken 25%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.15 | Draw 3.46 | Sandviken 4.07. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IK brage 20% (last 10 home games) | Sandviken 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, matchday 25 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 47% | Draw 29% | Sandviken 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG IK brage 1.46 / Sandviken 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.939 / def 0.902 | Sandviken attack 0.940 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: IK brage (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sandviken xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IK brage vs Sandviken FAQs
What time does IK brage vs Sandviken kick off?
IK brage vs Sandviken kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Sandviken?
IK brage 1 - 2 Sandviken.
Where is IK brage vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Sandviken part of?
IK brage vs Sandviken is a Superettan fixture (matchday 25) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 47% chance of winning, Sandviken a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IK brage and Sandviken will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will IK brage vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IK brage's attack at 0.94x the league average against Sandviken's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandviken's attack (0.94x) against IK brage's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from IK brage's last 54 games and Sandviken's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.46
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.46
1.00
Sandviken xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
6%
17.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IK brage vs Sandviken Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are IK brage and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for IK brage and 1.00 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IK brage come into this having played 24 games, going 10W 7D 7L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for IK brage against 1.50 for Sandviken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IK brage's home form reads 6W 3D 3L across their last 12 home games, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandviken have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 12 away games (2W 5D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandviken's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.58 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Sandviken
Blended
IK brage (Home) vs Sandviken (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IK brage
Blended
Sandviken
Blended
❓ IK brage vs Sandviken Form FAQs
What form are IK brage and Sandviken in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 10W 7D 7L in their last 24 games (1.54 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 10W 6D 8L in their last 24 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Sandviken away?
IK brage's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.75 PPG; Sandviken away: 0.92 PPG.
Have IK brage or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Sandviken in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between IK brage and Sandviken, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 15 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won Sandviken 2-5 IK brage on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sandviken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IK brage
1
Draws
3
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ IK brage vs Sandviken H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Sandviken?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, IK brage have won 2, Sandviken have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IK brage and Sandviken last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 September 2026: IK brage 1-1 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Sandviken?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sandviken see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 25%, Sandviken 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (IK brage) and 58% (Sandviken).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 33% of games; Sandviken in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IK brage vs Sandviken Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IK brage and Sandviken matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of IK brage's recent matches and 50% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IK brage and Sandviken matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of IK brage's recent games and 58% of Sandviken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Sandviken matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of IK brage's recent matches and 50% of Sandviken's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandviken defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat IK brage 1-2 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.46 xG and Sandviken 1.00 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sandviken outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Sandviken attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 47% | Draw 29% | Sandviken 25%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sandviken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 25%, Sandviken 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandviken's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.54 PPG, Sandviken 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.