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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IK brage.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ostersunds FK beat IK brage 0-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.24 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.10 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IK brage fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 39% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 33%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 45%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights