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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out IK brage 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oddevold beat IK brage 1-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 0.78 xG and Oddevold 1.63 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.70 / defence 1.09 against Oddevold attack 1.20 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 18% | Draw 25% | Oddevold 58%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 33%, Oddevold 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, Oddevold 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights