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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 8 as IK brage welcome Oddevold to Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

IK brage at Domnarvsvallen this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Domnarvsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Oddevold — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Oddevold away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (IK brage) versus 1.40 (Oddevold). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IK brage, 1 for Oddevold and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Oddevold winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

IK brage trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Oddevold trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 40% versus Oddevold 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 33% | Oddevold 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 0.78 xG and Oddevold 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.703 / defence 1.089 | Oddevold attack 1.197 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.249. IK brage's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 IK brage games / 37 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: IK brage 18% | Draw 25% | Oddevold 58%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Oddevold 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Oddevold (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Oddevold as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 30% | Oddevold 60% BTTS from recent games.

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