IK brage 1-2 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 8 as IK brage welcome Oddevold to Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
IK brage at Domnarvsvallen this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Domnarvsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Oddevold — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Oddevold away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (IK brage) versus 1.40 (Oddevold). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IK brage, 1 for Oddevold and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Oddevold winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
IK brage trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Oddevold trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 40% versus Oddevold 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 33% | Oddevold 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 0.78 xG and Oddevold 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.703 / defence 1.089 | Oddevold attack 1.197 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.249. IK brage's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 IK brage games / 37 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 18% | Draw 25% | Oddevold 58%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Oddevold 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Oddevold (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oddevold as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 30% | Oddevold 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 18% | Draw 25% | Oddevold 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG IK brage 0.78 / Oddevold 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.703 / def 1.089 | Oddevold attack 1.197 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Oddevold xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Oddevold kick off?
IK brage vs Oddevold kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Oddevold?
IK brage 1 - 2 Oddevold.
Where is IK brage vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Oddevold part of?
IK brage vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 18% chance of winning, Oddevold a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both IK brage and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Oddevold?
Record (2 meetings): IK brage 0W | Draws 1 | Oddevold 1W.
What form are IK brage and Oddevold in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IK brage's attack rating (0.70) and Oddevold's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
18%
5.61
25%
4.07
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.41
1.63
Oddevold xG
5.61
18%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
3%
28.60
26%
3.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 14.6 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are IK brage and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for IK brage and 1.63 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Oddevold?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage's recent record stands at 11W 8D 11L from 30 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Oddevold, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 10L across 30 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.37 PPG, Oddevold on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 7W 3D 5L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oddevold's away record stands at 4W 5D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.13 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold in 60%.
Defensively: IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Oddevold
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Oddevold in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Oddevold away?
IK brage's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.60 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.13 PPG.
Have IK brage or Oddevold been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Oddevold in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2025, when Oddevold won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
IK brage
1
Draws
4
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Oddevold?
From 5 meetings on record, IK brage have won 0, Oddevold have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when IK brage 3-4 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 33%, Oddevold 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (IK brage) and 67% (Oddevold).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 27% of games; Oddevold in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Oddevold?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of IK brage's recent matches and 60% of Oddevold's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of IK brage's recent games and 67% of Oddevold's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Oddevold tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out IK brage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat IK brage 1-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 0.78 xG and Oddevold 1.63 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.70 / defence 1.09 against Oddevold attack 1.20 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 18% | Draw 25% | Oddevold 58%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 33%, Oddevold 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, Oddevold 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.