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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant IK brage run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IK brage beat Landskrona BoIS 4-1 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.70 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.51 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.14 / defence 1.46 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 42% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 34%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 49%, Landskrona BoIS 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IK brage's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IK brage 1.34 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights