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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat IK brage 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIF Sundsvall beat IK brage 0-1 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.79 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.75 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IK brage fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.16 / defence 1.49 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 39% | Draw 23% | GIF Sundsvall 38%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 47%, GIF Sundsvall 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IK brage's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IK brage 1.38 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights