IK brage 0-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIF Sundsvall make the trip to Domnarvsvallen to face IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Wednesday 24 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IK brage have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Domnarvsvallen this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for IK brage, 1.10 for GIF Sundsvall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, IK brage are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 3 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2025, ended 2–0 with IK brage winning.
The historical record gives IK brage a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 51% versus GIF Sundsvall 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 47% | GIF Sundsvall 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.79 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.158 / defence 1.493 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.989 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.186. Data: 53 IK brage games / 53 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 39% | Draw 23% | GIF Sundsvall 38%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | GIF Sundsvall 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 90% | GIF Sundsvall 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 39% | Draw 23% | GIF Sundsvall 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG IK brage 1.79 / GIF Sundsvall 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.158 / def 1.493 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.989 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: IK brage (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.75
GIF Sundsvall xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 24 September 2025 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall?
IK brage 0 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 39% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both IK brage and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (7 meetings): IK brage 4W | Draws 3 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are IK brage and GIF Sundsvall in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IK brage's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.99x) against IK brage's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
39%
2.54
23%
4.34
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.54
1.75
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
17%
5.76
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
7%
14.66
6%
15.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are IK brage and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for IK brage and 1.75 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IK brage's recent record stands at 19W 16D 18L from 53 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 22L across 53 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for IK brage against 1.30 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 10W 6D 10L from 26 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 10W 4D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.13 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 19W 16D 18L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 19W 12D 22L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
IK brage's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.38 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.31 PPG.
Have IK brage or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 5-0 on 23 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
IK brage
3
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and GIF Sundsvall?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 5, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when IK brage 0-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and GIF Sundsvall?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 54%, GIF Sundsvall 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (IK brage) and 46% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 31%; GIF Sundsvall in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of IK brage's recent matches and 38% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of IK brage's recent games and 46% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat IK brage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat IK brage 0-1 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.79 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.75 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IK brage fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.16 / defence 1.49 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 39% | Draw 23% | GIF Sundsvall 38%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 47%, GIF Sundsvall 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.38 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.