IK brage 1-1 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gefle IF make the trip to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to face IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 19 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IK brage (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IK brage at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.32 xG and Gefle IF 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.945 / defence 0.853 | Gefle IF attack 0.734 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.124. Data: 37 IK brage games / 7 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 51% | Draw 29% | Gefle IF 20%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Gefle IF 5.00. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 51% | Draw 29% | Gefle IF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG IK brage 1.32 / Gefle IF 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.945 / def 0.853 | Gefle IF attack 0.734 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: IK brage (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Gefle IF xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Gefle IF kick off?
IK brage vs Gefle IF kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Gefle IF?
IK brage 1 - 1 Gefle IF.
Where is IK brage vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Gefle IF part of?
IK brage vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 51% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both IK brage and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Gefle IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and Gefle IF in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. IK brage home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IK brage's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Gefle IF's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Gefle IF's attack (0.73x) against IK brage's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
51%
1.95
29%
3.47
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.02
0.70
Gefle IF xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are IK brage and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for IK brage and 0.70 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Pre-Season
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gefle IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
IK brage
2
Draws
2
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, IK brage have won 0, Gefle IF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2024, when Gefle IF 2-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Gefle IF?
Gefle IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IK brage and Gefle IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage and Gefle IF finished level at 1-1 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.32 xG and Gefle IF 0.70 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.94 / defence 0.85 against Gefle IF attack 0.73 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 51% | Draw 29% | Gefle IF 20%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.