Gais 0-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 51%, yet in-form Jonkopings Sodra provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jonkopings Sodra make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Gais in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Gais (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gais haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gais's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jonkopings Sodra's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Jonkopings Sodra are 0.80 PPG clear of Gais in recent Superettan fixtures (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gais have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Jonkopings Sodra in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Gais, 2 for Jonkopings Sodra and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 44% versus Jonkopings Sodra 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 41% | Jonkopings Sodra 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 2.06 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.096 / defence 0.916 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.376 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.144. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jonkopings Sodra have an above-average attack strength of 1.376 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Gais games / 37 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 51% | Draw 22% | Jonkopings Sodra 26%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Jonkopings Sodra 3.85. Gais hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jonkopings Sodra (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gais 70% | Jonkopings Sodra 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 51% | Draw 22% | Jonkopings Sodra 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Gais 2.06 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.096 / def 0.916 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.376 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Gais (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Jonkopings Sodra xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Gais 0 - 1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 51% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Gais and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (2 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 2W.
What form are Gais and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Gais (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gais's attack rating (1.10) and Jonkopings Sodra's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (1.38x) against Gais's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
51%
1.94
22%
4.52
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Gais xG
Total xG
3.51
1.44
Jonkopings Sodra xG
1.94
51%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
13%
7.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
3%
29.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Gais and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Gais and 1.44 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gais's recent record stands at 10W 5D 17L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. Gais haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Jonkopings Sodra, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 13L across 32 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Gais against 1.22 for Jonkopings Sodra. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gais have managed 5W 3D 8L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record stands at 5W 6D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gais are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.41 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra in 72%.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 10W 5D 17L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Jonkopings Sodra's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.12 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gais
0
Draws
3
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Jonkopings Sodra?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Gais, 69% for Jonkopings Sodra — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gais) and 50% (Jonkopings Sodra).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gais's games and 69% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gais's recent games and 50% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jonkopings Sodra defy the odds to beat Gais 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Gais 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 2.06 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.44 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gais fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.38 / defence 1.30, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 51% | Draw 22% | Jonkopings Sodra 26%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Jonkopings Sodra win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 41%, Jonkopings Sodra 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.09 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jonkopings Sodra win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.