Helsingborg 0-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 June 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Helsingborg at Olympia this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Helsingborg are significantly better at Olympia than their overall form suggests.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Helsingborg at 1.10 PPG versus Ostersunds FK's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Helsingborg, 3 for Ostersunds FK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 48% versus Ostersunds FK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 48% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.13 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.848 / defence 1.116 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.824 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.366. Data: 40 Helsingborg games / 40 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 33% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 39%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Ostersunds FK 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 40% | Ostersunds FK 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 33% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Helsingborg 1.13 / Ostersunds FK 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.848 / def 1.116 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.824 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Ostersunds FK xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Helsingborg 0 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 33% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK?
Record (6 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 2 | Ostersunds FK 3W.
What form are Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
33%
3.01
28%
3.61
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.39
1.25
Ostersunds FK xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.25 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 21W 17D 22L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 20W 18D 22L from 60 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 1.33 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (11W 9D 10L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 8D 16L from 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.30 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.40 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Helsingborg's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Helsingborg
4
Draws
3
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Helsingborg 2-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 47%, Ostersunds FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Helsingborg) and 43% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 33% of games; Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 50% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Helsingborg's recent games and 43% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Helsingborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK finished level at 0-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.13 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Helsingborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 33% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 39%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 48%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.33 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.