Helsingborg 1-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 1 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Helsingborg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Helsingborg at Olympia this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIF Sundsvall's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Helsingborg, 0.90 for GIF Sundsvall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Helsingborg have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with GIF Sundsvall managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Helsingborg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Helsingborg half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 41% versus GIF Sundsvall 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 52% | GIF Sundsvall 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.49 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.988 / defence 0.924 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.948 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.196. Data: 58 Helsingborg games / 58 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 47% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 26%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | GIF Sundsvall 3.85. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 40% | GIF Sundsvall 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 47% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Helsingborg 1.49 / GIF Sundsvall 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.988 / def 0.924 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.948 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.05
GIF Sundsvall xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Helsingborg 1 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 47% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (7 meetings): Helsingborg 5W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Helsingborg's attack rating (0.99) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.95x) against Helsingborg's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.76
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.54
1.05
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.05 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 23W 15D 20L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 21W 12D 25L from 58 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.29 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.45 PPG from 29 outings (11W 9D 9L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 4D 14L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.14 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 23W 15D 20L in their last 58 games (1.45 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 21W 12D 25L in their last 58 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.45 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 5-2 on 21 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Helsingborg
3
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
From 10 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 6, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 45%, GIF Sundsvall 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Helsingborg) and 48% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 31%; Helsingborg have failed to score in 34% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 41% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Helsingborg's recent games and 48% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall finished level at 1-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.49 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.05 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.99 / defence 0.92 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 47% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 26%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 52%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.45 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.