Helsingborg 4-0 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Gefle IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus Gefle IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Helsingborg have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympia this season.
Gefle IF (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gefle IF's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Helsingborg's favour (2.00 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Helsingborg 1W, Gefle IF 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with Helsingborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gefle IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 46% versus Gefle IF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 43% | Gefle IF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.23 xG and Gefle IF 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.746 / defence 0.971 | Gefle IF attack 0.921 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.187. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gefle IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Helsingborg games / 54 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 39% | Draw 30% | Gefle IF 31%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Gefle IF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Helsingborg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 30% | Gefle IF 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 39% | Draw 30% | Gefle IF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Helsingborg 1.23 / Gefle IF 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.746 / def 0.971 | Gefle IF attack 0.921 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Gefle IF xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Gefle IF kick off?
Helsingborg vs Gefle IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Gefle IF?
Helsingborg 4 - 0 Gefle IF.
Where is Helsingborg vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Gefle IF part of?
Helsingborg vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 39% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Helsingborg and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Gefle IF?
Record (3 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 1 | Gefle IF 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and Gefle IF in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Helsingborg vs Gefle IF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Gefle IF's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Gefle IF's attack (0.92x) against Helsingborg's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.32
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.29
1.06
Gefle IF xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.06 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 19W 16D 19L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gefle IF's form line: 15W 17D 22L from 54 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.15 for Gefle IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (9W 9D 9L).
On the road, Gefle IF have gone 4W 9D 14L from 27 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.26 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Gefle IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 19W 16D 19L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 15W 17D 22L in their last 54 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Gefle IF away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.33 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Gefle IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Gefle IF in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Helsingborg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 4-0 on 29 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gefle IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Helsingborg
1
Draws
1
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 2, Gefle IF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Helsingborg 4-0 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Gefle IF?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 44%, Gefle IF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Helsingborg) and 52% (Gefle IF).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 37% of games; Gefle IF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Gefle IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 52% of Gefle IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Helsingborg's recent games and 52% of Gefle IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Helsingborg run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Gefle IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Gefle IF 4-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.23 xG and Gefle IF 1.06 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Helsingborg beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gefle IF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.75 / defence 0.97 against Gefle IF attack 0.92 / defence 1.29, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 39% | Draw 30% | Gefle IF 31%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 43%, Gefle IF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gefle IF's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.35 PPG, Gefle IF 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.