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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten finished level at 2-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.52 xG and Utsikten 1.09 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Utsikten outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Utsikten attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 47% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 27%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 48%, Utsikten 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Utsikten's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.21 PPG, Utsikten 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights