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Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Sandviken 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIF Sundsvall beat Sandviken 1-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.35 xG and Sandviken 1.21 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Sandviken attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 33%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, Sandviken 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sandviken's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.34 PPG, Sandviken 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights