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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 14, as GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.94 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.66 / defence 0.78, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 31%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 48%, Ostersunds FK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.21 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights