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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK encounter.

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Match Analysis

GIF Sundsvall host Ostersunds FK at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 June 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 5W 2D 3L at NP3 Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Ostersunds FK's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

GIF Sundsvall are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Ostersunds FK 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with GIF Sundsvall winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 47% versus Ostersunds FK 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 48% | Ostersunds FK 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.964 / defence 1.063 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.660 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.344. Ostersunds FK's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 GIF Sundsvall games / 43 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 31%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Ostersunds FK 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Ostersunds FK 60%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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