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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Landskrona BoIS beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.71 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.18 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.18 / defence 1.20, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 50% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 26%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 50%, Landskrona BoIS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.15 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights