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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IK brage cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GIF Sundsvall.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IK brage beat GIF Sundsvall 0-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.09 xG and IK brage 1.09 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IK brage outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against IK brage attack 0.79 / defence 0.79, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 35% | Draw 29% | IK brage 35%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 50%, IK brage 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.15 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights