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Poisson rates IK brage at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage encounter.

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Full Analysis

NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Thursday 22 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 5W 2D 3L at NP3 Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

IK brage have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. GIF Sundsvall's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of IK brage's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to IK brage, who have claimed 3 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that IK brage have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

IK brage — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 48% versus IK brage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 50% | IK brage 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.09 xG and IK brage 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.953 / defence 1.081 | IK brage attack 0.790 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.279. IK brage's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 GIF Sundsvall games / 38 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 35% | Draw 29% | IK brage 35%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | IK brage 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

IK brage lead the H2H ledger, but GIF Sundsvall carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 50% | IK brage 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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