GIF Sundsvall 0-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Thursday 22 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 5W 2D 3L at NP3 Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IK brage have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. GIF Sundsvall's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of IK brage's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to IK brage, who have claimed 3 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that IK brage have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
IK brage — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 48% versus IK brage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 50% | IK brage 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.09 xG and IK brage 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.953 / defence 1.081 | IK brage attack 0.790 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.279. IK brage's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 GIF Sundsvall games / 38 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 35% | Draw 29% | IK brage 35%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | IK brage 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
IK brage lead the H2H ledger, but GIF Sundsvall carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 50% | IK brage 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 22 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 35% | Draw 29% | IK brage 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.09 / IK brage 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.953 / def 1.081 | IK brage attack 0.790 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.09
IK brage xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 22 May 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 2 IK brage.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 35% chance of winning, IK brage a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
Record (6 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 3 | IK brage 3W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.95) and IK brage's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.79x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
35%
2.83
29%
3.42
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.18
1.09
IK brage xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.09 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 18W 15D 27L from 60 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 24L across 60 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.37 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 11W 9D 10L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 6W 8D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IK brage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.17 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while IK brage have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or IK brage away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.40 PPG; IK brage away: 0.87 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, IK brage in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 5-0 on 23 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
3
Draws
5
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, IK brage have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when IK brage 0-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 60%, IK brage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (GIF Sundsvall) and 33% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: IK brage in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 40% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 33% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and IK brage tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, IK brage in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat GIF Sundsvall 0-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.09 xG and IK brage 1.09 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IK brage outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against IK brage attack 0.79 / defence 0.79, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 35% | Draw 29% | IK brage 35%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 50%, IK brage 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.15 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.