Gefle IF 2-0 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Utsikten travel to Gavlevallen to take on Gefle IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gefle IF — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gefle IF's home record at Gavlevallen: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Utsikten have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Utsikten's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gefle IF 1.10 PPG, Utsikten 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gefle IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Utsikten in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gefle IF, 0 for Utsikten and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gefle IF trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Utsikten trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 55% versus Utsikten 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 57% | Utsikten 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.53 xG and Utsikten 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 0.975 / defence 1.191 | Utsikten attack 0.884 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.170. Data: 58 Gefle IF games / 58 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 43% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 30%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Utsikten 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gefle IF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gefle IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 70% | Utsikten 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 43% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Gefle IF 1.53 / Utsikten 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 0.975 / def 1.191 | Utsikten attack 0.884 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Utsikten xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Utsikten kick off?
Gefle IF vs Utsikten kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Utsikten?
Gefle IF 2 - 0 Utsikten.
Where is Gefle IF vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Utsikten part of?
Gefle IF vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 43% chance of winning, Utsikten a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gefle IF and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Utsikten?
Record (3 meetings): Gefle IF 0W | Draws 3 | Utsikten 0W.
What form are Gefle IF and Utsikten in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Utsikten (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Gefle IF vs Utsikten?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gefle IF's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.68
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.76
1.23
Utsikten xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.23 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gefle IF's recent record stands at 16W 18D 24L from 58 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Utsikten, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 18L across 58 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gefle IF on 1.14 PPG, Utsikten on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gefle IF have managed 12W 9D 8L from 29 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Utsikten's away record stands at 9W 9D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gefle IF are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.41 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 16W 18D 24L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 24W 16D 18L in their last 58 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Utsikten away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.55 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gefle IF and Utsikten runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gefle IF's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gefle IF
3
Draws
0
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Utsikten?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 1, Utsikten have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when Gefle IF 2-0 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Utsikten?
Gefle IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Utsikten see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 62%, Utsikten 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Gefle IF) and 38% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Utsikten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gefle IF's games and 48% of Utsikten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gefle IF vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Gefle IF's recent games and 38% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gefle IF and Utsikten tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gefle IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Utsikten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat Utsikten 2-0 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.53 xG and Utsikten 1.23 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Utsikten landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against Utsikten attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 43% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 30%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 57%, Utsikten 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Utsikten's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.14 PPG, Utsikten 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gefle IF win broke the near-deadlock. Gefle IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.