Gefle IF 2-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gefle IF and Trelleborg meet at Gavlevallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 July 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gefle IF have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gefle IF's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Gavlevallen this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Gefle IF, 0 for Trelleborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Gefle IF half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Trelleborg half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 59% versus Trelleborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 57% | Trelleborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.38 xG and Trelleborg 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.104 / defence 1.114 | Trelleborg attack 0.836 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.139. Data: 44 Gefle IF games / 44 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 44% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 29%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Trelleborg 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gefle IF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gefle IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gefle IF 70% | Trelleborg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 44% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Gefle IF 1.38 / Trelleborg 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.104 / def 1.114 | Trelleborg attack 0.836 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Trelleborg xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Trelleborg kick off?
Gefle IF vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Trelleborg?
Gefle IF 2 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Gefle IF vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Trelleborg part of?
Gefle IF vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 44% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gefle IF and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Trelleborg?
Record (2 meetings): Gefle IF 1W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Gefle IF and Trelleborg in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gefle IF's attack at 1.10x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.84x) against Gefle IF's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.71
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.44
1.06
Trelleborg xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.06 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Gefle IF have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 12W 15D 17L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg's form line: 15W 13D 16L from 44 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Gefle IF against 1.32 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gefle IF have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 6W 7D 8L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gefle IF are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.23 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 12W 15D 17L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Trelleborg away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.57 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gefle IF have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gefle IF
2
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Trelleborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 1, Trelleborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2024, when Trelleborg 1-0 Gefle IF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 62%, Trelleborg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Gefle IF) and 43% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gefle IF's games and 62% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gefle IF vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Gefle IF's recent games and 43% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gefle IF and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gefle IF and Trelleborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 15, as Gefle IF and Trelleborg drew 2-2 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.38 xG and Trelleborg 1.06 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Trelleborg outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.10 / defence 1.11 against Trelleborg attack 0.84 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 44% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 29%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 57%, Trelleborg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.16 PPG, Trelleborg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.