Falkenbergs FF 0-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 29 as Falkenbergs FF welcome Vasteras SK FK to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Falkenbergs FF — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Falkenbergs FF's home record at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Vasteras SK FK's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vasteras SK FK — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Falkenbergs FF have won 2, Vasteras SK FK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Falkenbergs FF in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Falkenbergs FF 50% versus Vasteras SK FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Falkenbergs FF 64% | Vasteras SK FK 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.95 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 1.338 / defence 0.765 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.403 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.189. Falkenbergs FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vasteras SK FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.403 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Falkenbergs FF's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Falkenbergs FF games / 28 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 52% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 24%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Vasteras SK FK 4.17. Falkenbergs FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Falkenbergs FF at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Falkenbergs FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Falkenbergs FF 30% | Vasteras SK FK 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 52% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.95 / Vasteras SK FK 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 1.338 / def 0.765 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.403 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Vasteras SK FK xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Falkenbergs FF 0 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 52% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (3 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 2W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Falkenbergs FF's attack rating (1.34) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.31
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
3.22
1.28
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
3%
28.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.28 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Falkenbergs FF come into this having played 28 games, going 11W 10D 7L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 2.11 PPG from 28 outings (18W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Falkenbergs FF's home form reads 8W 5D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Falkenbergs FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.79 points per game from 14 outings (8W 1D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 2.04 scored and 1.04 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Vasteras SK FK in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 11W 10D 7L in their last 28 games (1.54 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 18W 5D 5L in their last 28 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Falkenbergs FF's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 2.07 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Falkenbergs FF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Falkenbergs FF's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Falkenbergs FF
0
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Falkenbergs FF 0-1 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 43%, Vasteras SK FK 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Falkenbergs FF and 71% for Vasteras SK FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Falkenbergs FF's recent matches and 57% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 71% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Falkenbergs FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Falkenbergs FF 0-1 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.95 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.28 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Falkenbergs FF fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 1.34 / defence 0.77 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.40 / defence 0.93, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 52% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 24%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 64%, Vasteras SK FK 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.