Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 20 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Sirius to Hitachi Energy Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Sirius have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vasteras SK FK 1.70 PPG, Sirius 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vasteras SK FK, 2 for Sirius and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–4 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sirius trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vasteras SK FK 49% and Sirius 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vasteras SK FK 63% | Sirius 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.41 xG and Sirius 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.874 / defence 0.954 | Sirius attack 1.493 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.316. Sirius have an above-average attack strength of 1.493 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Vasteras SK FK games / 49 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 28% | Draw 24% | Sirius 48%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Sirius 2.08. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 50% | Sirius 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 28% | Draw 24% | Sirius 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.41 / Sirius 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.874 / def 0.954 | Sirius attack 1.493 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Sirius (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Sirius xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 28% chance of winning, Sirius a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Sirius?
Record (3 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 1 | Sirius 2W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Sirius in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Sirius (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vasteras SK FK's attack at 0.87x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
28%
3.55
24%
4.14
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
3.28
1.87
Sirius xG
3.55
28%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
4%
23.13
12%
8.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.87 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 28W 10D 11L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 24W 9D 16L from 49 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.92 PPG, Sirius on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 2.08 PPG from 24 outings (14W 8D 2L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 11W 5D 8L from 24 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 2.04 scored and 1.59 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 71%.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Sirius in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 28W 10D 11L in their last 49 games (1.92 PPG), while Sirius have gone 24W 9D 16L in their last 49 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Sirius away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.08 PPG; Sirius away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sirius in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Sirius runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Sirius won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Sirius?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, Sirius have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 46%, Sirius 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Vasteras SK FK and 79% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 83% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 79% of Sirius's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Sirius tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sirius edge out Vasteras SK FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Vasteras SK FK 0-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.41 xG and Sirius 1.87 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasteras SK FK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sirius landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Sirius attack 1.49 / defence 1.02, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 28% | Draw 24% | Sirius 48%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 63%, Sirius 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.92 PPG, Sirius 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.