Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Malmo FF travel to Studenternas IP to take on Sirius. The game is scheduled for Monday 31 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Malmo FF — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sirius 2.00 PPG, Malmo FF 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sirius register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Malmo FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Sirius, 4 for Malmo FF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Sirius winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 73% and Malmo FF 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sirius 75% | Malmo FF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.58 xG and Malmo FF 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.213 / defence 1.223 | Malmo FF attack 1.045 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.351. Data: 48 Sirius games / 48 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 34% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Malmo FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 70% | Malmo FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 34% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Sirius 1.58 / Malmo FF 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.213 / def 1.223 | Malmo FF attack 1.045 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Malmo FF xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Malmo FF kick off?
Sirius vs Malmo FF kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 31 August 2026 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Sirius 0 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Sirius vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Malmo FF part of?
Sirius vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 34% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sirius and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Malmo FF?
Record (9 meetings): Sirius 4W | Draws 1 | Malmo FF 4W.
What form are Sirius and Malmo FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.21x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
34%
2.92
25%
3.95
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.31
1.73
Malmo FF xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
6%
16.44
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Sirius and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sirius and 1.73 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sirius come into this having played 48 games, going 24W 9D 15L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.56 PPG from 48 outings (21W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.69 PPG, Malmo FF on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sirius's home form reads 13W 4D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.71 points per game from 24 outings (11W 8D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.62 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 24W 9D 15L in their last 48 games (1.69 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Malmo FF away?
Sirius's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.79 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Sirius or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Malmo FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Sirius won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
1
Draws
5
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, Malmo FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 62%, Malmo FF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Sirius) and 42% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sirius's games and 50% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sirius's matches and 42% of Malmo FF's.
Do Sirius and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Sirius 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.58 xG and Malmo FF 1.73 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.21 / defence 1.22 against Malmo FF attack 1.04 / defence 0.83, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 34% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 40%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 75%, Malmo FF 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Malmo FF's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.69 PPG, Malmo FF 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Malmo FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.