Varbergs BoIS FC 3-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Varbergs BoIS FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Varbergs BoIS FC face Ostersunds FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 26 as Varbergs BoIS FC welcome Ostersunds FK to Varberg Energi Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record at Varberg Energi Arena: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Varberg Energi Arena.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Ostersunds FK have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Varbergs BoIS FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Varbergs BoIS FC, 0 for Ostersunds FK and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2021, ended 2–1 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 62% versus Ostersunds FK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 54% | Ostersunds FK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.52 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.725 / defence 0.806 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.813 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.105. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 55 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 55% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 17%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Ostersunds FK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Varbergs BoIS FC (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 50% | Ostersunds FK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 55% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.52 / Ostersunds FK 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.725 / def 0.806 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.813 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Ostersunds FK xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Varbergs BoIS FC 3 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 55% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK?
Record (3 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 2W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (0.72) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
55%
1.81
28%
3.56
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.24
0.72
Ostersunds FK xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
4%
27.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0.72 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 17W 16D 22L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 11W 14D 30L from 55 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.22 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 8D 13L from 27 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Varbergs BoIS FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.93 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 17W 16D 22L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 11W 14D 30L in their last 55 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.52 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2020, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
2
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK?
From 9 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 67%, Ostersunds FK 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 44% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 37% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 44% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Varbergs BoIS FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Ostersunds FK 3-0 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.52 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.72 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.72 / defence 0.81 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.81 / defence 1.37, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 55% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 17%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 54%, Ostersunds FK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.22 PPG, Ostersunds FK 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.