IFK Norrkoping 3-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to PlatinumCars Arena to face IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 6W 2D 2L at PlatinumCars Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for IFK Norrkoping, 1.90 for IF Elfsborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IFK Norrkoping lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 0–1 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
IFK Norrkoping half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Norrkoping 69% and IF Elfsborg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 66% | IF Elfsborg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.61 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.227 / defence 0.992 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.214 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.137. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 IFK Norrkoping games / 55 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 42% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 32%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | IF Elfsborg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Norrkoping at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Norrkoping 60% | IF Elfsborg 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 42% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.61 / IF Elfsborg 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.227 / def 0.992 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.214 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.37
IF Elfsborg xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Norrkoping 3 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 42% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 0W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 1.23x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.21x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.81
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.98
1.37
IF Elfsborg xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.37 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, IFK Norrkoping have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 25W 11D 19L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 27W 18D 10L from 55 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for IFK Norrkoping against 1.80 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IFK Norrkoping have posted 1.74 PPG from 27 outings (13W 8D 6L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 13W 8D 6L from 27 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 25W 11D 19L in their last 55 games (1.56 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 27W 18D 10L in their last 55 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.74 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.74 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IFK Norrkoping
3
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 70%, IF Elfsborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (IFK Norrkoping) and 52% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of IFK Norrkoping's games and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of IFK Norrkoping's matches and 52% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Norrkoping edge out IF Elfsborg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat IF Elfsborg 3-2 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.61 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.37 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.23 / defence 0.99 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.21 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 42% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 32%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 66%, IF Elfsborg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.56 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.