Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg meet at Varberg Energi Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record at Varberg Energi Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Varbergs BoIS FC are significantly better at Varberg Energi Arena than their overall form suggests.
Helsingborg (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Varbergs BoIS FC's favour (0.80 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Varbergs BoIS FC 1W, Helsingborg 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2020, ended 1–3 with Helsingborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 51% versus Helsingborg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 54% | Helsingborg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.50 xG and Helsingborg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.888 / defence 0.981 | Helsingborg attack 0.923 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.043. Data: 43 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 14 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 49% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 23%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Helsingborg 4.35. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Varbergs BoIS FC 20% | Helsingborg 90%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 49% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.50 / Helsingborg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.888 / def 0.981 | Helsingborg attack 0.923 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Helsingborg xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 July 2022 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 0 Helsingborg.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 49% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg?
Record (2 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 1W | Draws 0 | Helsingborg 1W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Helsingborg (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC's attack at 0.89x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (0.92x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 43/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.58
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.44
0.94
Helsingborg xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
5%
19.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0.94 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 13W 12D 18L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg's form line: 14W 10D 19L from 43 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.21 for Helsingborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 7W 5D 8L from 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.28 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 13W 12D 18L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Helsingborg away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-3 on 15 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
3
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, Helsingborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Helsingborg 1-3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 35%, Helsingborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 65% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 60% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 65% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Varbergs BoIS FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg finished level at 0-0 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.50 xG and Helsingborg 0.94 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Helsingborg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Helsingborg attack 0.92 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 49% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 23%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 54%, Helsingborg 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helsingborg's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.19 PPG, Helsingborg 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.