Hammarby FF 3-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Hammarby FF welcome IF Elfsborg to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 7W 3D 0L at Tele2 Arena — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 1.60 (IF Elfsborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hammarby FF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IF Elfsborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hammarby FF have won 0, IF Elfsborg 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 54% versus IF Elfsborg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 54% | IF Elfsborg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.84 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.356 / defence 0.925 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.163 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.079. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Hammarby FF games / 43 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 53% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 23%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | IF Elfsborg 4.35. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 60% | IF Elfsborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 53% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Hammarby FF 1.84 / IF Elfsborg 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.356 / def 0.925 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.163 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
IF Elfsborg xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 53% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (1 meetings): Hammarby FF 0W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.17
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.00
1.16
IF Elfsborg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
4%
27.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.16 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 22W 11D 10L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 22W 9D 12L from 43 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.79 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.29 PPG from 21 outings (14W 6D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 10W 4D 7L from 21 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.79 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 22W 11D 10L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.29 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 62%, IF Elfsborg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hammarby FF) and 52% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 48% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hammarby FF's matches and 52% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IF Elfsborg 3-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.84 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.16 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.36 / defence 0.93 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.16 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 53% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 23%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 54%, IF Elfsborg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.79 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.