Sirius 1-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sirius and Ostersunds FK meet at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sirius (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Ostersunds FK have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Sirius. A 0.70 PPG lead over Ostersunds FK (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sirius, 2 for Ostersunds FK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2021, ended 0–3 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sirius half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 62% versus Ostersunds FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 55% | Ostersunds FK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.74 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.872 / defence 0.924 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.623 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.093. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Sirius games / 47 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 63% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 12%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Ostersunds FK 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 40% | Ostersunds FK 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 63% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 40% | xG Sirius 1.74 / Ostersunds FK 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.872 / def 0.924 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.623 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Sirius (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Ostersunds FK xG
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Sirius vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Ostersunds FK?
Sirius 1 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Sirius vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Sirius vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 63% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sirius and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Ostersunds FK?
Record (3 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 0 | Ostersunds FK 2W.
What form are Sirius and Ostersunds FK in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (0.87) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.62x) against Sirius's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
63%
1.59
25%
3.94
12%
8.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.37
0.63
Ostersunds FK xG
1.59
63%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
8.60
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
2%
49.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sirius and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Sirius and 0.63 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 47 games, going 14W 16D 17L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 0.89 PPG from 47 outings (10W 12D 25L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Sirius against 0.89 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 9W 7D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.91 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 14W 16D 17L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 10W 12D 25L in their last 47 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Sirius's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.48 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ostersunds FK won 3-0 on 22 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sirius
0
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2021, when Sirius 1-0 Ostersunds FK.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 65%, Ostersunds FK 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sirius) and 48% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 30%; Ostersunds FK in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Sirius's recent matches and 35% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sirius's recent games and 48% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sirius edge out Ostersunds FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.74 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.63 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.87 / defence 0.92 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.62 / defence 1.44, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 63% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 12%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 55%, Ostersunds FK 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.23 PPG, Ostersunds FK 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.