Kalmar FF 4-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 12 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldfågeln Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Degerfors IF (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 1W 2D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.56 PPG. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Kalmar FF's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kalmar FF 1W, Degerfors IF 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2021, ended 1–0 with Kalmar FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 47% versus Degerfors IF 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 35% | Degerfors IF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.52 xG and Degerfors IF 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.770 / defence 1.124 | Degerfors IF attack 0.629 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.082. Kalmar FF's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Kalmar FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Kalmar FF games / 17 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 54% | Draw 29% | Degerfors IF 17%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Degerfors IF 5.88. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 30% | Degerfors IF 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 54% | Draw 29% | Degerfors IF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Kalmar FF 1.52 / Degerfors IF 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.770 / def 1.124 | Degerfors IF attack 0.629 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Degerfors IF xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Kalmar FF 4 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 54% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF?
Record (1 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (0.77) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.63x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
54%
1.87
29%
3.40
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.28
0.77
Degerfors IF xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
4%
26.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.77 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalmar FF come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 6D 5L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.06 PPG from 17 outings (5W 3D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.06 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kalmar FF's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.56 points per game from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 29%.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 6W 6D 5L in their last 17 games (1.41 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.33 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Kalmar FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kalmar FF won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Kalmar FF
0
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF?
From 7 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 6, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Kalmar FF) and 33% (Degerfors IF) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Kalmar FF) and 44% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 44% of games; Degerfors IF in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 33% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 44% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kalmar FF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Degerfors IF 4-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.52 xG and Degerfors IF 0.77 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Kalmar FF beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.77 / defence 1.12 against Degerfors IF attack 0.63 / defence 1.44, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 54% | Draw 29% | Degerfors IF 17%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 35%, Degerfors IF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.41 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.