Sirius 2-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Malmo FF travel to Studenternas IP to take on Sirius. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Malmo FF — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sirius 1.40 PPG, Malmo FF 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sirius, 2 for Malmo FF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 1–3 with Malmo FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 52% versus Malmo FF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 56% | Malmo FF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.08 xG and Malmo FF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.883 / defence 0.995 | Malmo FF attack 0.898 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.135. Data: 46 Sirius games / 46 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 36% | Draw 30% | Malmo FF 33%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Malmo FF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 40% | Malmo FF 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 36% | Draw 30% | Malmo FF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Sirius 1.08 / Malmo FF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.883 / def 0.995 | Malmo FF attack 0.898 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Sirius (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Malmo FF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Malmo FF kick off?
Sirius vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Sirius 2 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Sirius vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Malmo FF part of?
Sirius vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 36% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sirius and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Malmo FF?
Record (2 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 0 | Malmo FF 2W.
What form are Sirius and Malmo FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.88x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
36%
2.75
30%
3.29
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.09
1.01
Malmo FF xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sirius and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sirius and 1.01 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sirius come into this having played 46 games, going 16W 10D 20L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.93 PPG from 46 outings (26W 11D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sirius's home form reads 11W 2D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.73 points per game from 22 outings (11W 5D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.74 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 26W 11D 9L in their last 46 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.59 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Sirius or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Malmo FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Sirius won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
1
Draws
5
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, Malmo FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 41%, Malmo FF 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sirius) and 41% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Malmo FF in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sirius's recent matches and 36% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sirius's recent games and 41% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sirius edge out Malmo FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Malmo FF 2-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.08 xG and Malmo FF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Malmo FF attack 0.90 / defence 0.84, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 36% | Draw 30% | Malmo FF 33%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 56%, Malmo FF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Malmo FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.