Helsingborg 0-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sirius (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Helsingborg face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Sirius travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg at Olympia this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sirius are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sirius, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Helsingborg.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Sirius winning.
It is worth noting that Sirius have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Sirius in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 45% versus Sirius 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 49% | Sirius 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.04 xG and Sirius 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.612 / defence 1.173 | Sirius attack 1.087 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.117. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.612 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Helsingborg games / 47 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 27% | Draw 28% | Sirius 45%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Sirius 2.22. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 40% | Sirius 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 27% | Draw 28% | Sirius 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Helsingborg 1.04 / Sirius 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.612 / def 1.173 | Sirius attack 1.087 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Sirius (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Sirius xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Sirius kick off?
Helsingborg vs Sirius kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Sirius?
Helsingborg 0 - 0 Sirius.
Where is Helsingborg vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Sirius part of?
Helsingborg vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 27% chance of winning, Sirius a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Helsingborg and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Sirius?
Record (3 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 0 | Sirius 3W.
What form are Helsingborg and Sirius in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Sirius (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
27%
3.69
28%
3.61
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.47
1.43
Sirius xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
7%
15.35
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.43 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 15W 12D 20L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 17W 10D 20L from 47 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 1.21 PPG, Sirius on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 5W 8D 11L from 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Helsingborg are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.26 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Sirius in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 15W 12D 20L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Sirius have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Sirius away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.21 PPG; Sirius away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sirius in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Helsingborg's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Helsingborg
1
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Sirius?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 0, Sirius have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2022, when Helsingborg 0-0 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 38%, Sirius 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Helsingborg) and 67% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 33% of games; Sirius in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 62% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Helsingborg's recent games and 67% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Sirius tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sirius in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Helsingborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg and Sirius finished level at 0-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.04 xG and Sirius 1.43 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Helsingborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sirius landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.61 / defence 1.17 against Sirius attack 1.09 / defence 1.15, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 27% | Draw 28% | Sirius 45%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 49%, Sirius 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sirius's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.21 PPG, Sirius 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.