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Dominant Sirius run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Malmo FF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sirius beat Malmo FF 5-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.27 xG and Malmo FF 1.64 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.05 / defence 1.01 against Malmo FF attack 1.20 / defence 0.82, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sirius 30% | Draw 24% | Malmo FF 46%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 64%, Malmo FF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sirius's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Malmo FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Malmo FF (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights