Sirius 0-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Monday 24 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sirius are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
Kalmar FF (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Kalmar FF are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Sirius 0W, Kalmar FF 1W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 49% versus Kalmar FF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 51% | Kalmar FF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.11 xG and Kalmar FF 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.874 / defence 0.911 | Kalmar FF attack 1.188 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.239. Data: 57 Sirius games / 57 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 29% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Kalmar FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 40% | Kalmar FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 29% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Sirius 1.11 / Kalmar FF 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.874 / def 0.911 | Kalmar FF attack 1.188 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Kalmar FF xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Sirius vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Sirius 0 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is Sirius vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Kalmar FF part of?
Sirius vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 29% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sirius and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
Record (4 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 3 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Sirius and Kalmar FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sirius's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (1.19x) against Sirius's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
29%
3.50
32%
3.16
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.45
1.34
Kalmar FF xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
7%
13.39
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sirius and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sirius and 1.34 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius's recent record stands at 18W 14D 25L from 57 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 17L across 57 games — 1.65 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kalmar FF by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sirius heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 13W 3D 12L from 28 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 12W 6D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.33 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 18W 14D 25L in their last 57 games (1.19 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 27W 13D 17L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Kalmar FF away?
Sirius's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.50 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sirius or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
5
Draws
1
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 43%, Kalmar FF 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sirius) and 54% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sirius's recent matches and 61% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sirius's recent games and 54% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sirius's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 28, as Sirius and Kalmar FF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.11 xG and Kalmar FF 1.34 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sirius fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.87 / defence 0.91 against Kalmar FF attack 1.19 / defence 0.87, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 29% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 40%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 51%, Kalmar FF 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kalmar FF arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.