IFK Varnamo 1-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 28 as IFK Varnamo welcome IFK Norrkoping to Finnvedsvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Finnvedsvallen this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Norrkoping stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, IFK Varnamo have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IFK Varnamo register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, IFK Norrkoping in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IFK Varnamo, 1 for IFK Norrkoping and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2022, ended 0–2 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 51% versus IFK Norrkoping 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 47% | IFK Norrkoping 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.33 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.881 / defence 1.088 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.857 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.239. Data: 27 IFK Varnamo games / 57 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 31% | IFK Norrkoping 30%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | IFK Norrkoping 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 70% | IFK Norrkoping 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 31% | IFK Norrkoping 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.33 / IFK Norrkoping 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.881 / def 1.088 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.857 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.16
IFK Norrkoping xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 39% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Varnamo 0W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.88x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
39%
2.59
31%
3.18
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.49
1.16
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.16 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 27W 13D 17L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 21W 13D 23L from 57 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.65 PPG, IFK Norrkoping on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 1.96 PPG from 28 outings (16W 7D 5L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 8W 5D 15L from 28 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.42 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 27W 13D 17L in their last 57 games (1.65 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 21W 13D 23L in their last 57 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.96 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.04 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: IFK Norrkoping have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when IFK Norrkoping won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
6
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping?
From 9 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, IFK Norrkoping have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when IFK Norrkoping 6-0 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 50%, IFK Norrkoping 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (IFK Varnamo) and 50% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; IFK Norrkoping in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play IFK Norrkoping?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 57% of IFK Norrkoping's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 50% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 28, as IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.33 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.16 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 31% | IFK Norrkoping 30%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 47%, IFK Norrkoping 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.65 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.