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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sirius cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hammarby FF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sirius beat Hammarby FF 3-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.03 xG and Hammarby FF 1.65 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Hammarby FF attack 1.20 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sirius 23% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 51%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 60%, Hammarby FF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sirius's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights