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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sirius face Hammarby FF.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 21 as Sirius welcome Hammarby FF to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sirius's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sirius's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

Hammarby FF have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters against Sirius's 0 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Hammarby FF winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hammarby FF have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Sirius trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Hammarby FF trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 64% versus Hammarby FF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 60% | Hammarby FF 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.03 xG and Hammarby FF 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.874 / defence 1.007 | Hammarby FF attack 1.201 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.365. Hammarby FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Sirius games / 50 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sirius 23% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 51%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Hammarby FF 1.96. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 60% | Hammarby FF 40%.

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