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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sirius.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Degerfors IF beat Sirius 1-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 2.41 xG and Degerfors IF 1.01 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sirius fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Degerfors IF attack 0.88 / defence 1.50, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sirius 68% | Draw 18% | Degerfors IF 14%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, Degerfors IF 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sirius's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sirius 1.26 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights