Sirius 3-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours AIK Stockholm (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sirius face AIK Stockholm.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 12 as Sirius welcome AIK Stockholm to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 June 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AIK Stockholm — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sirius, 3 for AIK Stockholm and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 55% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 62% | AIK Stockholm 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 0.86 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.835 / defence 1.057 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.964 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.336. AIK Stockholm's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Sirius games / 42 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 24% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 49%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | AIK Stockholm 2.04. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 70% | AIK Stockholm 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 24% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Sirius 0.86 / AIK Stockholm 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.835 / def 1.057 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.964 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.36
AIK Stockholm xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Sirius 3 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 24% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sirius and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
Record (7 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 3 | AIK Stockholm 3W.
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sirius's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
24%
4.22
28%
3.60
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.22
1.36
AIK Stockholm xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
6%
16.46
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.8 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sirius and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Sirius and 1.36 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 24W 11D 25L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 26W 12D 22L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.38 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (13W 4D 13L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 10W 5D 15L from 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sirius are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.33 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 24W 11D 25L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Sirius's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.43 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Sirius or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Sirius won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 53%, AIK Stockholm 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sirius) and 50% (AIK Stockholm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius have failed to score in 27% of games; AIK Stockholm in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sirius's recent matches and 53% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sirius's matches and 50% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do Sirius and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat AIK Stockholm 3-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 0.86 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.36 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.96 / defence 0.78, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 24% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 49%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.38 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.