Ostersunds FK 0-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sirius make the trip to Jämtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Thursday 18 June 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 0.81 xG and Sirius 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | Sirius attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.648. Data: 1 Ostersunds FK games / 1 Sirius games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 15% | Draw 32% | Sirius 53%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 6.67 | Draw 3.12 | Sirius 1.89. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Jun 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 15% | Draw 32% | Sirius 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Ostersunds FK 0.81 / Sirius 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | Sirius attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.648 • Poisson stance: Sirius (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Sirius xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Sirius kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 18 June 2020 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Sirius?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 2 Sirius.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Sirius part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 15% chance of winning, Sirius a 53% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Sirius in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.98x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.85x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
15%
6.51
32%
3.14
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.42
1.61
Sirius xG
6.51
15%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
3%
32.58
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.3 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.61 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
Sirius
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ostersunds FK won 3-0 on 22 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
0
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Sirius?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Sirius have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2021, when Sirius 1-0 Ostersunds FK.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Ostersunds FK 0-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 0.81 xG and Sirius 1.61 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Sirius attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 15% | Draw 32% | Sirius 53%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.