Orgryte IS 1-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mjallby AIF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Orgryte IS in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orgryte IS's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Orgryte IS are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Mjallby AIF in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 0 for Mjallby AIF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Orgryte IS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 53% versus Mjallby AIF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 56% | Mjallby AIF 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.84 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.210 / defence 1.260 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.854 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.342. Data: 25 Orgryte IS games / 55 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 46% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 30%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Mjallby AIF 3.33. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 90% | Mjallby AIF 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 46% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Orgryte IS 1.84 / Mjallby AIF 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.210 / def 1.260 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.854 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Mjallby AIF xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 29 October 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
Orgryte IS 1 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 46% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (1.21) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.85x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
46%
2.15
23%
4.26
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.28
1.44
Mjallby AIF xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
5%
20.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.44 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 20W 15D 20L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF's form line: 28W 14D 13L from 55 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mjallby AIF are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orgryte IS.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (11W 9D 7L).
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 14W 8D 5L from 27 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.55 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 20W 15D 20L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 28W 14D 13L in their last 55 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.56 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 29 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
1
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF?
From 2 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2026, when Orgryte IS 1-2 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 56%, Mjallby AIF 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Orgryte IS) and 56% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Orgryte IS's games and 59% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Orgryte IS's matches and 56% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Orgryte IS 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.84 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.44 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.21 / defence 1.26 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 46% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 30%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 56%, Mjallby AIF 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.