Orebro SK 0-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 3 as Orebro SK welcome Ostersunds FK to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 June 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.88 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.818 / defence 1.213 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.669 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 0.830 / away 1.498. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Orebro SK games / 2 Ostersunds FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 24% | Draw 35% | Ostersunds FK 41%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Ostersunds FK 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jun 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 24% | Draw 35% | Ostersunds FK 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Orebro SK 0.88 / Ostersunds FK 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.818 / def 1.213 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.669 / def 1.296 | league avg home 0.830 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ostersunds FK xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 June 2020 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Orebro SK 0 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 24% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 41% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.82x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
24%
4.22
35%
2.82
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.10
1.22
Ostersunds FK xG
4.22
24%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.25
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.0 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.22 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ostersunds FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Orebro SK won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Orebro SK
2
Draws
5
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Orebro SK 0-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK finished level at 0-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.88 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.22 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.82 / defence 1.21 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.67 / defence 1.30, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 24% | Draw 35% | Ostersunds FK 41%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.