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Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Sirius 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat Sirius 2-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 2.17 xG and Sirius 0.94 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.16 / defence 0.67 against Sirius attack 1.13 / defence 1.36, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 66% | Draw 19% | Sirius 15%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 56%, Sirius 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Sirius's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights