Mjallby AIF 2-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mjallby AIF (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mjallby AIF face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Sirius meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 July 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen.
Sirius (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Mjallby AIF. A 1.50 PPG lead over Sirius (2.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Mjallby AIF have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 7 meetings, with Sirius managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jul 2025, ended 2–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Mjallby AIF and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjallby AIF 67% and Sirius 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 56% | Sirius 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 2.17 xG and Sirius 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.160 / defence 0.665 | Sirius attack 1.131 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.245. Sirius bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.665 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Mjallby AIF games / 46 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 66% | Draw 19% | Sirius 15%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Sirius 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 50% | Sirius 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jul 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 66% | Draw 19% | Sirius 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Mjallby AIF 2.17 / Sirius 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.160 / def 0.665 | Sirius attack 1.131 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sirius xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Sirius kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Sirius kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 27 July 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 66% chance of winning, Sirius a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
Record (7 meetings): Mjallby AIF 6W | Draws 1 | Sirius 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Sirius in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Sirius (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (1.16) and Sirius's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.13x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
66%
1.53
19%
5.16
15%
6.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
3.11
0.94
Sirius xG
1.53
66%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
6.63
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
2%
58.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.94 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 25W 12D 9L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 15W 9D 22L from 46 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mjallby AIF are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sirius.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 2.26 PPG from 23 outings (15W 7D 1L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 7W 5D 11L from 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.48 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Sirius in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 25W 12D 9L in their last 46 games (1.89 PPG), while Sirius have gone 15W 9D 22L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Sirius away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.26 PPG; Sirius away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
0
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 8, Sirius have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Mjallby AIF 4-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Mjallby AIF, 74% for Sirius — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mjallby AIF) and 61% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Mjallby AIF's games and 74% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 61% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Sirius tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sirius in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Sirius 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Sirius 2-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 2.17 xG and Sirius 0.94 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.16 / defence 0.67 against Sirius attack 1.13 / defence 1.36, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 66% | Draw 19% | Sirius 15%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 56%, Sirius 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.