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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mjallby AIF and Osters IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 24, as Mjallby AIF and Osters IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.55 xG and Osters IF 0.61 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.05 / defence 0.66 against Osters IF attack 0.67 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 60% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 14%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 53%, Osters IF 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Osters IF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights