Mjallby AIF 1-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus Osters IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 20 September 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 8W 2D 0L at Strandvallen — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen.
Osters IF (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Mjallby AIF's favour (2.60 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjallby AIF lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2025, ended 1–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 64% versus Osters IF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 53% | Osters IF 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.55 xG and Osters IF 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.055 / defence 0.663 | Osters IF attack 0.673 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.363. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.663 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Mjallby AIF games / 23 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 60% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 14%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Osters IF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 50% | Osters IF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 60% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 36% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.55 / Osters IF 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.055 / def 0.663 | Osters IF attack 0.673 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Osters IF xG
36%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 60% chance of winning, Osters IF a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Osters IF?
Record (1 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 0 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Osters IF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Osters IF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (1.05) and Osters IF's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (0.67x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
60%
1.66
26%
3.91
14%
7.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.16
0.61
Osters IF xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
7.04
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
33%
3.05
3%
33.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.61 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 53 games, going 31W 13D 9L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.42 PPG from 53 outings (20W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Osters IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 17W 8D 1L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 1.23 points per game from 26 outings (8W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.43 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 31W 13D 9L in their last 53 games (2.00 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 20W 15D 18L in their last 53 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Osters IF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.27 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
0
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Osters IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 1, Osters IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Osters IF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 69%, Osters IF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mjallby AIF) and 35% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Osters IF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Mjallby AIF's games and 46% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 35% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Osters IF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Osters IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 24, as Mjallby AIF and Osters IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.55 xG and Osters IF 0.61 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.05 / defence 0.66 against Osters IF attack 0.67 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 60% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 14%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 53%, Osters IF 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.