Mjallby AIF 2-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 4 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen.
IF Elfsborg have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Mjallby AIF's 2.60 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of IF Elfsborg's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mjallby AIF, 3 for IF Elfsborg and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjallby AIF 64% and IF Elfsborg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 51% | IF Elfsborg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.45 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.987 / defence 0.703 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.755 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.350. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.703 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Mjallby AIF games / 55 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 55% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 18%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | IF Elfsborg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
IF Elfsborg lead the H2H ledger, but Mjallby AIF carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 50% | IF Elfsborg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 55% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 39% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.45 / IF Elfsborg 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.987 / def 0.703 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.755 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.72
IF Elfsborg xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 55% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (7 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 3 | IF Elfsborg 3W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.76x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.73
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.17
0.72
IF Elfsborg xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
4%
23.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.72 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 32W 14D 9L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 24W 10D 21L from 55 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mjallby AIF are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Elfsborg.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 2.22 PPG from 27 outings (17W 9D 1L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 9W 4D 14L from 27 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 32W 14D 9L in their last 55 games (2.00 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 24W 10D 21L in their last 55 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.22 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 2, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 70%, IF Elfsborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Mjallby AIF) and 56% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Mjallby AIF's games and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 56% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IF Elfsborg 2-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.45 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.72 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.99 / defence 0.70 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 55% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 18%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 51%, IF Elfsborg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.